Structural Change, Land Use and Urban Expansion

Le LEMMA, accueillera le mardi 15 octobre à 11h, en salle Maurice Desplas, Nicolas COEURDACIER.

Nicolas COEURDACIER est professeur d'économie à Sciences Po et CEPR Research Fellow (International Macroeconomics). Ses recherches portent sur la macroéconomie et la finance internationales, la macroéconomie spatiale et la démographie. Voir ses travaux en cours ici.
 
Nicolas COEURDACIER présentera  “Structural Change, Land Use and Urban Expansion”, with Florian Oswald and Marc Teignier [*pdf]

Abstract: How do cities grow in the process of structural transformation? To answer this question, we develop a multi-sector spatial equilibrium model with endogenous land use: land is used either for agriculture or housing. Urban land, densely populated due to commuting frictions, expands out of agricultural land. With low productivity and high subsistence needs, farmland is expensive, households cannot afford large homes and cities are very dense. Increasing productivity reallocates factors away from agriculture, freeing up land for urban expansion and limiting the increase in land values despite higher income and urban population. With the area of cities growing faster than urban population, urban density can persistently decline, as in the data over a long period. Quantitative predictions of the joint evolution of density and land values across time and space are confronted with historical data assembled for France over 180 years.